What is "on the bubble" and how should you play while there?
You are "on the bubble" when you are one position away from finishing in the money. In a single table sit 'n go with 9 players starting and 3 players getting paid, you are on the bubble when you are down to 4 players (one away from the money). When the next player gets knocked out, the bubble bursts so to speak, and the remaining players get paid.
Most players tend to tighten up when on the bubble. The thinking is that if they just wait it out, someone will get knocked out and they will skate into the money. Other players realize this and become more aggressive, taking advantage of the tighter play around the table by stealing the blinds.
In order to determine the correct strategy you must first look at the prize structure. In multi-table tournaments, just making it into the money doesn't pay very well. Many times the prize will only be a percent or two of the total pool. The big money is in the top three places. So your goal should be building a big stack so you have enough chips to get there. Playing looser and more aggressive on the bubble in a multi-table tournament is the way to build your stack (or get you knocked out!). But in a 9 person single table sit 'n go, just making it to the money typically pays 20%. So for the single table tournaments your primary goals is survival. Once you make it to the money, then you can worry about finishing first.
So what changes should you make from the pre-flop strategy outlined previously? That's simple. NOTHING! Do not change a thing. Totally ignore that you are on the bubble. If you have a big stack, you will naturally play tighter because of the starting hand formula, and by playing tighter, you give yourself a chance to skate into the money. But if you are the small stack, your starting hand requirements will open up. If your stack gets below M7, you will be pushing all-in with the appropriate hands. And because most players on the bubble in single table tournaments play tighter, you are less likely to get called. So stick with the strategy and play it the same way on the bubble as you would if there were still 5 or 6 players left in the game.
Calling All-In Bets
I want to address one more area regarding bubble play: calling all-in bets. If you are the first to act and you open with a push, you have two ways to win. Either everyone will fold and you will win immediately or you will win if you have the best hand at showdown. However, when you call an all-in bet from another player, you lose that first-in advantage. Now you must win at showdown. As a result, your calling range must be much tighter than your pushing range. Here are some guidelines to help you make all-in calling decisions.
If the push comes from a larger stack than yours, call with AA and KK. Fold everything else. Again, it is about survival. Even QQ is a mere coin toss against someone holding AK. And don't risk your tournament on calling with AK, even if it is "sooooted!" After all, AK is just an ace with a good kicker. Even a pair of 2's has you beat unless you improve.
If the push comes from a smaller stack and losing at showdown will still leave you with M > 7, add QQ and AK to your calling range. If the smaller stack has been pushing frequently, you could add AQ suited and JJ, but your risk increases the further you open your range.
If the push comes from a stack that is less than 10% of your stack (great situation) and you are the last to act (so you do not have to fear a raise behind you), call with any pair above 88, any two face cards, and any two middle or better suited connectors.
The key message regarding bubble play is to continue to play the standard strategy outlined in previous lessons. Let the formula determine your starting hands and be careful when calling all-in bets. Your goal is to play carefully so you can survive until the bubble bursts.
